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UTSA Center for Community and Business Research Releases Eagle Ford Shale Study Highlighting 2014-16 Economic Impact

UTSA Center for Community and Business Research Releases Eagle Ford Shale Study Highlighting 2014-16 Economic Impact

Oil rig counts in the Eagle Ford Shale region began to rise after bottoming in 2016, and are expected to continue rising steadily in 2017.

 

SAN ANTONIO, (June 21, 2017) – Commissioned by the South Texas Energy and Economic Roundtable (STEER), The University of Texas at San Antonio’s (UTSA) Center for Community and Business Research (CCBR) completed the latest Eagle Ford Shale (EFS) study in June. The study titled, “Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale, Business Opportunities and the New Normal” provides new trend data and updated economic impact analysis across 2014, 2015 and, 2016.

Access the Full Study:
“Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale, Business Opportunities and the New Normal”
at bit.ly/EFS_Report2017

Dr. Thomas Tunstall, senior research director for CCBR, which is hosted at UTSA’s Institute for Economic Development, led the study with his team of researchers. “Our report indicates that the decrease in economic impact bottomed out in 2016 and appears to have turned the corner. Oil prices in 2017 are higher and rig counts have risen from their lows last year,” Tunstall said.

After several years of unprecedented growth, the Eagle Ford Shale experienced a sharp decline in oil prices. The decline may have negatively impacted businesses and jobs in the area, however the current scenario offers more job opportunities in the region when compared to past decades of declining population and jobs in several counties in the shale area.

Gross output from Eagle Ford activity across the 21 county area jumped from $87 billion in 2013 to $123 billion in 2014. In the years since the peak occurred in 2014, gross output from Eagle Ford activity fell to $80 billion in 2015, and again in 2016 to $50 billion. And, while jobs supported by the Eagle Ford also peaked in 2014 at 191,153, up from 154,984 in 2013, by 2016, the number of jobs supported had fallen to 108,213.

“Although we experienced a decrease in jobs and economic impact in 2015 and 2016, we continue to see that the oil and gas industry is essential to the livelihood of South Texas. With more than 100,000 jobs and $55 billion in economic output last year, the results of the UTSA study further illustrates the importance of the oil and gas industry to South Texans. The industry in South Texas brought much needed infrastructure along with a sustainable source of income to the area. Sustained growth will further benefit the region through an increased tax base along with increased job and educational opportunities,” said Omar Garcia, president and CEO of STEER.

Since August 2014, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price dropped from more than $100 per barrel to $43.4 by March 2015, and by February 2016 it was close to $26.2 per barrel. Since then however, the price has recovered and by January 2017 it had reached $53.0 per barrel, signaling important opportunities for future growth as the price more than doubled in less than one year.

Additionally, a variety of industry sectors have also grown in the Eagle Ford area; many, but not all, are directly or indirectly associated with oil and gas activity. In 2015, U.S. natural gas exports to Mexico topped one trillion cubic feet annually – a new record. And, in 2016, U.S. natural gas production reached an annual record of 28 trillion cubic feet.

The Study provides analysis for the 21-county study area as a whole, both the Eagle Ford Shale 15-county core area as a whole (Atascosa, Bee, DeWitt, Dimmit, Frio, Gonzales, Karnes, La Salle, Lavaca, Live Oak, McMullen, Maverick, Webb, Wilson, and Zavala) and the six adjacent counties as a whole (Bexar, Jim Wells, Nueces, San Patricio, Victoria, and Uvalde). The second phase of the Study includes breakouts for all 21 counties individually and compares inter-industry relationships from 2010-2015. The comparison of different multipliers demonstrates how employment and production have been affected in the area.

UTSA and STEER representatives plan on traveling to Eagle Ford cities in late June to discuss the results of the 2017 Eagle Ford Shale Economic Impact Study with community leaders and the general public. The tour follows the Eagle Ford Consortium Inc.’s (EFCI) annual conference, which focused on the ongoing activity of the Eagle Ford and was hosted at UTSA’s downtown campus from June 7-8.

“The Eagle Ford Shale play became a boon to the South Texas economy, and provided an opportunity to boost local infrastructure. Our region is well positioned for a successful future as local area production picks back up. South Texas has become an export leader in the energy products realm. We are committed to continued sustainable growth,” said John LaRue, Port Corpus Christi executive director.

Access the Full Study: “Economic Impact of the Eagle Ford Shale, Business Opportunities and the New Normal” at bit.ly/EFS_Report2017


Center for Community and Business Research: ccbr.iedtexas.org

Institute for Economic Development: iedtexas.org

About the UTSA Institute for Economic Development
The UTSA Institute for Economic Development is dedicated to growing businesses, creating jobs and fostering economic development. Focused on building the economy one business at a time, the Institute consists of 10 centers and programs that provide professional business advising, technical training, research and strategic planning for entrepreneurs, business owners and community leaders. These programs serve Greater San Antonio, the Texas-Mexico border area as well as regional, national and international stakeholders. Together with the federal, state and local governments, and private businesses, the UTSA Institute for Economic Development fosters economic and community development in support of UTSA’s community engagement mission. In 2016, the Institute generated direct regional economic impact of 7,517 jobs, started 591 new businesses, $447 million in new financing, $78 million in new tax revenue and exceeded $1.4 billion in new sales, exports and contracts.

For more information, contact
Jennilee Garza, Senior Communications Coordinator
Institute for Economic Development
Phone: 210-458-2958
jennilee.garza@utsa.edu

Small Businesses and Their Impact on Texas

Small Businesses and Their Impact on Texas

The Office of the Governor contracted with CCBR to investigate the economic impact of Texas businesses with fewer than 100 employees and to identify factors that contribute to their success or failure. In order to achieve this goal, a multi-prong approach was taken that includes:

  • Economic analyses estimating the impacts of small business based on region, industry and size
  • Exploring and analyzing issues of small business ownership, birth and death rates of small businesses and their impacts on job creation and destruction
  • Examining processes associated with export opportunities for small businesses in Texas, as well as providing input from a sample of city managers and economic development directors
  • Compiling a summary of relevant literature identifying potential indicators that may impact small business activity

 

Key Takeaways

  • In 2012, small firms, defined by the Small Business Administration as those with fewer than 500 employees, represented 98.6% of Texas employers. A more useful definition may be SBF100 firms (those employing less than 100 workers) by putting more emphasis on the most entre preneurial sector of the economy.
  • In 2012, SBF100 firms hired roughly 3 million workers and had an estimated total economic impact of $844 billion in gross output.
  • Of these firms, the construction ($68.8 billion), professional-scientific & technical services ($68.1 billion), retail trade ($62.4 billion) and health & social services ($53.6 billion) sectors had the most impact.
  • SBF 100 firms in 2012 generated $13.866 billion in state revenue and $14.965 billion in federal revenue.
  • Studies have shown that SBF 100 firms provided experience and on-the-job training to a broader segment of the population, on average, than larger firms do.
  • Studies have also shown that children of small business owners are more likely to start small businesses of their own.
  • A growing portion of the workforce, known as “giggers”, have found autonomy and increased income by putting their higher skillsets to work in multiple temporary work assignments. This portion is projected to rise, placing growing importance on the need to understand the issues associated with it.
  • Recent studies have shown that job creation does not depend on firm size, but rather on firm age. In other words, newer small firms likely create more jobs (on their way to becoming large firms) than older small firms.
  • Rural areas in Texas, as well as the entire US, are transitioning from an agricultural and manufacturing-dominated economy to a more sustainable and diverse urban-rural interdependence model.
  • Cities with a higher concentration of creative class workers are more resilient in turbulent economic times, but studies point to the lack of focus on negative impacts this has on low-income workers dealing with higher costs of living.
  • Small business development is greatly discouraged by the lack of capital, assets, information, and proper management.

 


Download the Full Report at: http://bit.ly/TXsmallbizimpact2016

Download the Executive Summary at: http://bit.ly/TXsmallbizimpact16_execsum


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New UTSA Study Stresses Diversification In Economic Development For Oil Boom Towns

New UTSA Study Stresses Diversification In Economic Development For Oil Boom Towns

In a new study published in The Journal of Regional Analysis & Policy, Thomas Tunstall, research director of the UTSA Institute for Economic Development, describes how regions affected by the oil boom in the Eagle Ford Shale can avoid becoming ghost towns after the revenues dry up.

“There may be 1,000 or more ghost towns in Texas,” Tunstall said. “We have to figure out a way to keep the communities that are still here viable.”

In his new study, Tunstall looks at several Eagle Ford Shale counties and towns whose fortunes have been made since the oil boom in the past five years. And though the area could continue producing at a high rate for years, the key to sustaining an economy in previously sleepy towns is to use that extra money to diversify the local economy. That way, when the price of oil falls or, far into the future, the oil dries up, the town remains economically stable.

“We saw what happened to Houston in the 1980s when oil prices dropped,” Tunstall said. “In a lot of cases, people were packing up and leaving. It’s completely avoidable.”

He used the example of Gonzales, Texas as a town that prospered from oil production. It has also diversified by making itself a tourist destination as the birthplace of the Texas Revolution.

“One way to do it is to look at the reason the town is there,” he said. “Sometimes a town becomes a ghost town because a highway or rail line bypassed it, or in many cases farming community became unnecessary because of the widespread mechanization of agriculture.”

Some towns in the Eagle Ford Shale have looked into becoming Free Trade Zones, allowing manufacturing companies to come in and operate without tariffs. Tunstall’s colleagues in the UTSA Institute for Economic Development also analyzed the town of Asherton, Texas that is diversifying by taking advantage of a crop that hadn’t been previously singled out as a commodity in Texas: olives. The state now produces about 54 tons per year. In 2002, it wasn’t producing any.

“Gonzales, Karnes City and Pleasanton have all done a great job of fostering economic development,” he said. “Some cities haven’t, either because their governments just aren’t in sync or they’re just disorganized. We hope that these cities take the opportunity to steward the additional tax revenue they’ve received, because nothing lasts forever.”

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UTSA and key Mexican partners release preliminary report on impacts of energy reform on the Mexican Economy

UTSA and key Mexican partners release preliminary report on impacts of energy reform on the Mexican Economy

The University of Texas at San Antonio’s Institute for Economic Development, the Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, the Asociación de Empresarios Mexicanos, and the Woodrow Wilson Center are set to release a preliminary report to gauge the growth and the effects that the oil and natural gas industry will have for residents and decision makers in Mexico.

The report contains a general overview on the Energy Reform, an economic background on oil and natural gas (especially trade between US and México) a state level profile, infrastructure and educational certificates specific to oil and natural gas education. The core study area concentrates on the economic impact on the following Mexican states: Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas and Veracruz.

“Opportunities for unconventional or shale oil and gas productions in Mexico are in the earliest stages of development. Due to its close proximity to major shale field development in South and West Texas, Mexico is particularly well positioned to take advantage of unconventional extraction techniques,” said Thomas Tunstall, research director at the UTSA Institute for Economic Development.

After being elected in 2012, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto worked with other ruling parties to create a “Pact for Mexico” which included 11 important reforms, one of which was energy. The initial proposed reforms focused on removing hydrocarbons from the sectors controlled directly by the government. Thus opening up oil and gas fields through exploration and production contracts with the Mexican government, as well the granting of permits for the development of a robust and well-integrated hydrocarbons infrastructure.

México sits atop an estimated 545 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of shale natural gas reserves, and additional trillions of cubic feet of conventional reserves. The bulk of México’s shale prospects appear to lie in the north and northeastern sections of the country, where infrastructure is often largely undeveloped. This means that in order to tap the country’s bounty of shale oil and gas, infrastructure such as roads, housing, rail, pipeline and many others will have to be built out first. The ability to develop a suitably skilled workforce will be key to long-term success. Security issues must also be addressed.

The second part of the report introduces a preliminary Business Roadmap, A Guide for the Operator, which briefly describes the necessary steps a prospective operator in the upstream activity in Mexico will have to comply with in order to expand or initiate operations in Mexico.

Download the full preliminary report

Descargue el informe preliminar completo